Trumping Venezuelan Opposition

 For the FPA, I  interviewed Diego Arria Former President of the United Nations Security Council, former Venezuelan Ambassador to the United Nations and an opposition leader

Ian Williams:

Good afternoon. I am Ian Williams, President of the Foreign Press Association. It is a pleasure to speak again with Diego Arria, a former President of the United Nations Security Council and a long standing advocate for international accountability.

Diego, we previously worked closely during periods of crisis, including conflicts in the Balkans, when you consistently pressed the United Nations to act decisively rather than rely on procedural language. When we last spoke, you were still processing the shock of recent developments in Venezuela. You expressed relief at the removal of Nicolás Maduro, but also concern regarding what would follow, particularly with respect to governance, legitimacy, and the role of the United States.

How have your views evolved since our last conversation?

 

Initial Reactions and Shifting Perceptions

Diego Arria:

My initial reaction was one of surprise. At first, I believed President Trump was acting as a liberator rather than a conqueror. Many Venezuelans shared that view. For the first time, we felt that an American president was taking Venezuela seriously.

However, that perception has changed. President Trump now speaks almost exclusively about oil. He does not speak about democracy or freedom. Those words are absent from his statements. Oil dominates the narrative. Venezuela is more than oil!

Today, we have more than one thousand political prisoners. Instead of prioritizing their liberation, the President speaks publicly about securing tens of millions of barrels of oil. That contrast is deeply troubling.

 

Sanctions and the International Order

Ian Williams:

It appears that the United States is attempting to impose sanctions unilaterally, in a manner similar to the Iraq sanctions regime. That regime proved disastrous and contributed to the erosion of the international system. Is this a fair comparison?

Diego Arria:

Yes, it is a fair comparison. Matters worsened when the United States effectively endorsed Delcy Rodríguez, formerly Maduro’s vice president. She claimed to be in communication with Washington and willing to follow instructions from the White House.

Yet she remains surrounded by the same criminal networks. Many of these individuals are already sanctioned by the United States, with some listed for financial rewards. Only weeks earlier, these same figures were publicly labeled narco-terrorists by United States officials. Now they are portrayed as acceptable partners in a so-called transition. That contradiction is deeply alarming.

 

Continuity of Power Structures

Ian Williams:

In effect, the central figure has been removed, but the same power structure remains intact?

Diego Arria:

That is correct. If President Trump claims that Venezuela is under his control, then he bears responsibility for what happens next. Why are political prisoners still detained? Why do figures such as Diosdado Cabello and Defense Minister Vladimir Padrino López remain in power?

They openly attack the United States while simultaneously being described as partners. This is extremely difficult to reconcile.

 

Oil Versus Democratic Reform

Ian Williams:

Does this suggest a purely transactional approach, one in which repression is tolerated as long as oil continues to flow?

Diego Arria:

Oil has always shaped Venezuela’s history. However, we were once a functioning democracy with a meaningful role in international affairs. That was destroyed by a criminal structure.

It is deeply ironic that those once described as terrorists by United States officials are now treated as legitimate counterparts. No one would have accepted defeating Nazi Germany while leaving its leadership structure intact. Yet that is effectively what is happening in Venezuela.

 

Repression and Public Fear

Ian Williams:

Why, then, are there no mass demonstrations in Venezuela following these events?

Diego Arria:

Because repression has intensified. Since President Trump declared himself in charge, security forces have actively pursued anyone suspected of supporting United States policy. People are imprisoned for social media posts. The situation has deteriorated, not improved.

 

Power Dynamics Within the Government

Ian Williams:

Is there evidence of a private understanding or a side deal between Washington and Delcy Rodríguez?

Diego Arria:

She has no independent power. Real authority lies with the military leadership, specifically Padrino López and Cabello. Without the armed forces, she cannot govern.

Ironically, President Trump once dismissed opposition leaders for lacking military support. Now he appears to believe Rodríguez can resist military pressure. I see no basis for that assumption.

 

Military Calculations

Ian Williams:

Could pragmatic elements within the armed forces reach an accommodation with the United States in order to preserve their interests?

Diego Arria:

That has long been our hope. However, the population sees the same figures on television, unchanged. After years of suffering, people remain silent in their homes.

 

Opposition Leadership and International Optics

Ian Williams:

María Corina Machado has publicly praised President Trump and even suggested support for a Nobel Peace Prize and even offered to pass on her own.. Has this damaged the opposition’s international standing?

Diego Arria:

I have not discussed this with her directly, but I understand the political calculation. When only one leader appears willing to act, there is pressure to maintain that support.

However, this approach is risky. President Trump may focus solely on symbolic recognition rather than Venezuela’s democratic legitimacy, which rests with President elect Edmundo González, who received the votes.

 

Humanitarian and Legal Concerns

Ian Williams:

There are also serious humanitarian and legal concerns, including extrajudicial actions at sea. Can this realistically be described as an intervention for the benefit of Venezuelans?

Diego Arria:

From a legal perspective, these actions violate international law. Some argue that when confronting narco terrorist groups, traditional legal frameworks no longer apply. That argument is dangerous, but it is being used to justify current actions.å

 

Risks to the Opposition

Ian Williams:

History shows that such tactics often strengthen extremist forces by alienating the population. Does this create new risks for the democratic opposition?

Diego Arria:

Precisely. If President Trump claims to rule Venezuela while allowing the same criminal structure to operate freely, repression will intensify. That is what we are witnessing.

 

Looking Ahead

Ian Williams:

What happens next? Where does the opposition go from here?

Diego Arria:

Much depends on upcoming meetings in Washington over the next few days. At that point, the direction should become clearer. Until then, it would be premature to speculate.

 

Closing Remarks

Ian Williams:

We will conclude here for now. Thank you for joining us, Diego. Shall we reconvene once there is greater clarity?

Diego Arria:

Thank you, Ian. I wish I had more definitive answers, but at present, none of us does.

 

Footnotes

1. Diego Arria served as President of the United Nations Security Council in nineteen ninety two and has been a vocal advocate for international action in humanitarian crises.
   
2. The term Cartel de los Soles refers to allegations of organized drug trafficking involving senior Venezuelan officials, documented in multiple international investigations.
   
3. The comparison to Iraq era sanctions reflects widely acknowledged humanitarian consequences and long term damage to the international system.
   
4. Edmundo González Urrutia was recognized by the Venezuelan opposition as the winner of the most recent presidential election, despite the official results announced by the Maduro government.