Diego Arria on Venezuela, Intervention, and the Limits of Sovereignty
By Ian Williams
There are echoes of Kosovo in what is unfolding in Venezuela — raising profound questions of legality, sovereignty, and responsibility. As with the capture of Saddam Hussein, it risks becoming the lynching of a guilty man: morally satisfying to some, but legally and politically perilous.
To explore these issues, The day of the US raid, I spoke with Ambassador Diego Arria, Venezuela’s former ambassador to the United Nations and a former president of the UN Security Council during the Balkan wars who was, like many Venezuelans happy to see Maduro gone, but apprehensive about Trump’s intentions.
As Venezuela’s ambassador in the UN Security Council Arria played a significant role in shaping what Kofi Annan later formalized as the Responsibility to Protect and left his mark with the “The Arria Formula” meetings of the Security Council, designed to discuss larger issues. A progressive reformist, former governor of Caracas, and longtime opponent of authoritarianism, Arria is no reactionary outsider to Venezuelan politics although he has been exiled from home for some years and has in fact recently moved from New York to Miami to be closer to the action. He has remained deeply engaged in the opposition all this time.
What Actually Happened?
Ian Williams: What has just happened in Venezuela? Did anyone invite President Trump or the U.S. military to intervene, or was this a unilateral action?
Diego Arria:
No one invited Trump. None of us were consulted. It was a complete surprise. Early Saturday morning — around 1:00 or 1:30 a.m. — I received the first call. Abrupt, unexpected, and, at first, welcome. I thought this might be the first real step toward restoring freedom and democracy.
But hours later, when President Trump spoke on television and said the United States would govern Venezuela “until things are fixed,” I was deeply shaken. He also claimed that Maria Corina Machado lacked the respect of the country. Among the people, she received nearly 70 percent of the vote — and had Venezuelans abroad been allowed to vote, that number would have been closer to 90 or 95 percent. If she lacks respect, it is from the armed forces, not the population.
Collusion Within the Military?
Ian Williams:
Does that suggest collusion within the Venezuelan armed forces?
Diego Arria:
Not officially — but this operation was too clean, too precise, to have happened without internal cooperation. Maduro was taken without major incidents. That requires local support. Some individuals within the system clearly facilitated it.
Ian Williams:
And those same individuals may be telling Washington that Machado lacks support?
Diego Arria:
Exactly. She has legitimacy by the standards the United States itself promotes: free elections. We won. To then say “we will govern Venezuela” is absurd. You would need thousands of people to run a country of this size and complexity.
When Trump said the U.S. would govern “until everything is fixed,” I thought: Until everything is fixed? Venezuela has collapsed institutions, extreme inflation, and a humanitarian catastrophe. That would be as hard as governing the United States itself.
A Dangerous Precedent
Ian Williams:
Even those glad to see Maduro gone worry about the precedent this sets. What stops China from seizing Taiwan, or Russia from removing Zelensky?
Diego Arria:
That concern is legitimate. Many media outlets, including The New York Times, argue that Trump violated international law — and they are correct. But what is often ignored is that nine million Venezuelans have fled the country, and thousands have been imprisoned and tortured. This is not a normal situation.
Trump is, in fact, the only U.S. president who has attempted decisive action on Venezuela.
Ian Williams:
Or did he act primarily for oil?
Diego Arria:
Oil is certainly part of the calculation. Venezuela holds the largest proven oil reserves in the world. Trump thinks in terms of deals — business deals, peace deals. Oil was a component of the decision.
Were Venezuelans Consulted?
Ian Williams:
Were any Venezuelans involved in planning this?
Diego Arria:
No one in my circle was consulted. I serve on the advisory council to Maria Corina Machado. We had suspicions something might happen — but nothing like this.
The operation itself rivals Entebbe. No casualties. That alone indicates internal cooperation.
What Was Left Behind
Ian Williams:
Only Maduro was taken. Why not others, such as Diosdado Cabello?
Diego Arria:
I don’t know. What concerns me is that the institutions were left intact. The opposition is unarmed. Unless Trump follows through on what he called a “second wave,” the narco-terrorist structure of the regime remains.
Occupation and Nationalism
Ian Williams:
Would U.S. boots on the ground trigger nationalist resistance?
Diego Arria:
Ironically, many Venezuelans would welcome an intervention today. Twenty-six years of destruction have changed opinions. Polls suggest people would welcome Western forces — but not a country run by oil companies or governed from Washington.
Ian Williams:
The danger, of course, is an Iraq-style occupation.
Diego Arria:
Exactly. I do not believe this administration is capable of governing another country. Venezuela is vast. Even with nine million refugees, thirty million people remain. Trump never explained how he would govern — and he left no personnel behind.
Now Delcy RodrÃguez is claiming legitimacy as president. Trump suggested she would cooperate, yet she publicly insults him. It’s unclear what comes next.
Chaos or Stalemate?
Ian Williams:
Is a Libya-style collapse possible?
Diego Arria:
We don’t have religious divisions like Libya. Any conflict would emerge within the armed forces themselves. We’ll know more in days, not months.
Sovereignty and Responsibility
Ian Williams:
During Bosnia and Kosovo, you argued that sovereignty has limits — that it cannot shield mass abuse.
Diego Arria:
That principle still applies. This is not a legitimate government. It is a gang that seized a country. If they don’t respect Venezuelans, why should they be protected by sovereignty?
What Comes Next?
Ian Williams:
Does the opposition have a Plan B?
Diego Arria:
We have Plans A through Z. But no one imagined Maduro would be extracted alone like this.
Ian Williams:
It remains remarkable that such a complex operation was executed so efficiently by an administration known for chaos.
Diego Arria:
I can only hope that when we speak again, the situation will be clearer — and better — than it is today. You know, I've always been so close to what's happening in my country.
