Trumping Venezuelan Opposition

 For the FPA, I  interviewed Diego Arria Former President of the United Nations Security Council, former Venezuelan Ambassador to the United Nations and an opposition leader

Ian Williams:

Good afternoon. I am Ian Williams, President of the Foreign Press Association. It is a pleasure to speak again with Diego Arria, a former President of the United Nations Security Council and a long standing advocate for international accountability.

Diego, we previously worked closely during periods of crisis, including conflicts in the Balkans, when you consistently pressed the United Nations to act decisively rather than rely on procedural language. When we last spoke, you were still processing the shock of recent developments in Venezuela. You expressed relief at the removal of Nicolás Maduro, but also concern regarding what would follow, particularly with respect to governance, legitimacy, and the role of the United States.

How have your views evolved since our last conversation?

 

Initial Reactions and Shifting Perceptions

Diego Arria:

My initial reaction was one of surprise. At first, I believed President Trump was acting as a liberator rather than a conqueror. Many Venezuelans shared that view. For the first time, we felt that an American president was taking Venezuela seriously.

However, that perception has changed. President Trump now speaks almost exclusively about oil. He does not speak about democracy or freedom. Those words are absent from his statements. Oil dominates the narrative. Venezuela is more than oil!

Today, we have more than one thousand political prisoners. Instead of prioritizing their liberation, the President speaks publicly about securing tens of millions of barrels of oil. That contrast is deeply troubling.

 

Sanctions and the International Order

Ian Williams:

It appears that the United States is attempting to impose sanctions unilaterally, in a manner similar to the Iraq sanctions regime. That regime proved disastrous and contributed to the erosion of the international system. Is this a fair comparison?

Diego Arria:

Yes, it is a fair comparison. Matters worsened when the United States effectively endorsed Delcy Rodríguez, formerly Maduro’s vice president. She claimed to be in communication with Washington and willing to follow instructions from the White House.

Yet she remains surrounded by the same criminal networks. Many of these individuals are already sanctioned by the United States, with some listed for financial rewards. Only weeks earlier, these same figures were publicly labeled narco-terrorists by United States officials. Now they are portrayed as acceptable partners in a so-called transition. That contradiction is deeply alarming.

 

Continuity of Power Structures

Ian Williams:

In effect, the central figure has been removed, but the same power structure remains intact?

Diego Arria:

That is correct. If President Trump claims that Venezuela is under his control, then he bears responsibility for what happens next. Why are political prisoners still detained? Why do figures such as Diosdado Cabello and Defense Minister Vladimir Padrino López remain in power?

They openly attack the United States while simultaneously being described as partners. This is extremely difficult to reconcile.

 

Oil Versus Democratic Reform

Ian Williams:

Does this suggest a purely transactional approach, one in which repression is tolerated as long as oil continues to flow?

Diego Arria:

Oil has always shaped Venezuela’s history. However, we were once a functioning democracy with a meaningful role in international affairs. That was destroyed by a criminal structure.

It is deeply ironic that those once described as terrorists by United States officials are now treated as legitimate counterparts. No one would have accepted defeating Nazi Germany while leaving its leadership structure intact. Yet that is effectively what is happening in Venezuela.

 

Repression and Public Fear

Ian Williams:

Why, then, are there no mass demonstrations in Venezuela following these events?

Diego Arria:

Because repression has intensified. Since President Trump declared himself in charge, security forces have actively pursued anyone suspected of supporting United States policy. People are imprisoned for social media posts. The situation has deteriorated, not improved.

 

Power Dynamics Within the Government

Ian Williams:

Is there evidence of a private understanding or a side deal between Washington and Delcy Rodríguez?

Diego Arria:

She has no independent power. Real authority lies with the military leadership, specifically Padrino López and Cabello. Without the armed forces, she cannot govern.

Ironically, President Trump once dismissed opposition leaders for lacking military support. Now he appears to believe Rodríguez can resist military pressure. I see no basis for that assumption.

 

Military Calculations

Ian Williams:

Could pragmatic elements within the armed forces reach an accommodation with the United States in order to preserve their interests?

Diego Arria:

That has long been our hope. However, the population sees the same figures on television, unchanged. After years of suffering, people remain silent in their homes.

 

Opposition Leadership and International Optics

Ian Williams:

María Corina Machado has publicly praised President Trump and even suggested support for a Nobel Peace Prize and even offered to pass on her own.. Has this damaged the opposition’s international standing?

Diego Arria:

I have not discussed this with her directly, but I understand the political calculation. When only one leader appears willing to act, there is pressure to maintain that support.

However, this approach is risky. President Trump may focus solely on symbolic recognition rather than Venezuela’s democratic legitimacy, which rests with President elect Edmundo González, who received the votes.

 

Humanitarian and Legal Concerns

Ian Williams:

There are also serious humanitarian and legal concerns, including extrajudicial actions at sea. Can this realistically be described as an intervention for the benefit of Venezuelans?

Diego Arria:

From a legal perspective, these actions violate international law. Some argue that when confronting narco terrorist groups, traditional legal frameworks no longer apply. That argument is dangerous, but it is being used to justify current actions.å

 

Risks to the Opposition

Ian Williams:

History shows that such tactics often strengthen extremist forces by alienating the population. Does this create new risks for the democratic opposition?

Diego Arria:

Precisely. If President Trump claims to rule Venezuela while allowing the same criminal structure to operate freely, repression will intensify. That is what we are witnessing.

 

Looking Ahead

Ian Williams:

What happens next? Where does the opposition go from here?

Diego Arria:

Much depends on upcoming meetings in Washington over the next few days. At that point, the direction should become clearer. Until then, it would be premature to speculate.

 

Closing Remarks

Ian Williams:

We will conclude here for now. Thank you for joining us, Diego. Shall we reconvene once there is greater clarity?

Diego Arria:

Thank you, Ian. I wish I had more definitive answers, but at present, none of us does.

 

Footnotes

1. Diego Arria served as President of the United Nations Security Council in nineteen ninety two and has been a vocal advocate for international action in humanitarian crises.
   
2. The term Cartel de los Soles refers to allegations of organized drug trafficking involving senior Venezuelan officials, documented in multiple international investigations.
   
3. The comparison to Iraq era sanctions reflects widely acknowledged humanitarian consequences and long term damage to the international system.
   
4. Edmundo González Urrutia was recognized by the Venezuelan opposition as the winner of the most recent presidential election, despite the official results announced by the Maduro government.
   

Trumping the Venezuelan Opposition!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Nyc5Tz_4Ccw

Down with Maduro - but why? And Up with whom?

 Diego Arria on Venezuela, Intervention, and the Limits of Sovereignty

By Ian Williams

There are echoes of Kosovo in what is unfolding in Venezuela — raising profound questions of legality, sovereignty, and responsibility. As with the capture of Saddam Hussein, it risks becoming the lynching of a guilty man: morally satisfying to some, but legally and politically perilous.

To explore these issues, The day of the US raid, I spoke with Ambassador Diego Arria, Venezuela’s former ambassador to the United Nations and a former president of the UN Security Council during the Balkan wars who was, like many Venezuelans happy to see Maduro gone, but apprehensive about Trump’s intentions.

As Venezuela’s ambassador in the UN Security Council Arria played a significant role in shaping what Kofi Annan later formalized as the Responsibility to Protect and left his mark with the “The Arria Formula” meetings of the Security Council, designed to discuss larger issues. A progressive reformist, former governor of Caracas, and longtime opponent of authoritarianism, Arria is no reactionary outsider to Venezuelan politics although he has been exiled from home for some years and has in fact recently moved from New York to Miami to be closer to the action. He has remained deeply engaged in the opposition all this time.

What Actually Happened?

Ian Williams: What has just happened in Venezuela? Did anyone invite President Trump or the U.S. military to intervene, or was this a unilateral action?

Diego Arria:

No one invited Trump. None of us were consulted. It was a complete surprise. Early Saturday morning — around 1:00 or 1:30 a.m. — I received the first call. Abrupt, unexpected, and, at first, welcome. I thought this might be the first real step toward restoring freedom and democracy.

But hours later, when President Trump spoke on television and said the United States would govern Venezuela “until things are fixed,” I was deeply shaken. He also claimed that Maria Corina Machado lacked the respect of the country. Among the people, she received nearly 70 percent of the vote — and had Venezuelans abroad been allowed to vote, that number would have been closer to 90 or 95 percent. If she lacks respect, it is from the armed forces, not the population.

Collusion Within the Military?

Ian Williams:

Does that suggest collusion within the Venezuelan armed forces?

Diego Arria:

Not officially — but this operation was too clean, too precise, to have happened without internal cooperation. Maduro was taken without major incidents. That requires local support. Some individuals within the system clearly facilitated it.

Ian Williams:

And those same individuals may be telling Washington that Machado lacks support?

Diego Arria:

Exactly. She has legitimacy by the standards the United States itself promotes: free elections. We won. To then say “we will govern Venezuela” is absurd. You would need thousands of people to run a country of this size and complexity.

When Trump said the U.S. would govern “until everything is fixed,” I thought: Until everything is fixed? Venezuela has collapsed institutions, extreme inflation, and a humanitarian catastrophe. That would be as hard as governing the United States itself.

A Dangerous Precedent

Ian Williams:

Even those glad to see Maduro gone worry about the precedent this sets. What stops China from seizing Taiwan, or Russia from removing Zelensky?

Diego Arria:

That concern is legitimate. Many media outlets, including The New York Times, argue that Trump violated international law — and they are correct. But what is often ignored is that nine million Venezuelans have fled the country, and thousands have been imprisoned and tortured. This is not a normal situation.

Trump is, in fact, the only U.S. president who has attempted decisive action on Venezuela.

Ian Williams:

Or did he act primarily for oil?

Diego Arria:

Oil is certainly part of the calculation. Venezuela holds the largest proven oil reserves in the world. Trump thinks in terms of deals — business deals, peace deals. Oil was a component of the decision.

Were Venezuelans Consulted?

Ian Williams:

Were any Venezuelans involved in planning this?

Diego Arria:

No one in my circle was consulted. I serve on the advisory council to Maria Corina Machado. We had suspicions something might happen — but nothing like this.

The operation itself rivals Entebbe. No casualties. That alone indicates internal cooperation.

What Was Left Behind

Ian Williams:

Only Maduro was taken. Why not others, such as Diosdado Cabello?

Diego Arria:

I don’t know. What concerns me is that the institutions were left intact. The opposition is unarmed. Unless Trump follows through on what he called a “second wave,” the narco-terrorist structure of the regime remains.

Occupation and Nationalism

Ian Williams:

Would U.S. boots on the ground trigger nationalist resistance?

Diego Arria:

Ironically, many Venezuelans would welcome an intervention today. Twenty-six years of destruction have changed opinions. Polls suggest people would welcome Western forces — but not a country run by oil companies or governed from Washington.

Ian Williams:

The danger, of course, is an Iraq-style occupation.

Diego Arria:

Exactly. I do not believe this administration is capable of governing another country. Venezuela is vast. Even with nine million refugees, thirty million people remain. Trump never explained how he would govern — and he left no personnel behind.

Now Delcy Rodríguez is claiming legitimacy as president. Trump suggested she would cooperate, yet she publicly insults him. It’s unclear what comes next.

Chaos or Stalemate?

Ian Williams:

Is a Libya-style collapse possible?

Diego Arria:

We don’t have religious divisions like Libya. Any conflict would emerge within the armed forces themselves. We’ll know more in days, not months.

Sovereignty and Responsibility

Ian Williams:

During Bosnia and Kosovo, you argued that sovereignty has limits — that it cannot shield mass abuse.

Diego Arria:

That principle still applies. This is not a legitimate government. It is a gang that seized a country. If they don’t respect Venezuelans, why should they be protected by sovereignty?

What Comes Next?

Ian Williams:

Does the opposition have a Plan B?

Diego Arria:

We have Plans A through Z. But no one imagined Maduro would be extracted alone like this.

Ian Williams:

It remains remarkable that such a complex operation was executed so efficiently by an administration known for chaos.

Diego Arria:

I can only hope that when we speak again, the situation will be clearer — and better — than it is today. You know, I've always been so close to what's happening in my country.